India rebases GDP to 2022-23: the growth rate barely moves, the level falls
The statistics office moved to a 2022-23 base year and reported 7.8% real growth for the October-December quarter. Two things changed at once, and only one of them is about performance.
By Rohit Banerjee · Economics Correspondent, Business
The short version
- The base year for the national accounts has moved from 2011-12 to 2022-23.
- Real GDP in the October-December quarter of 2025-26 grew 7.8% to ₹84.54 lakh crore.
- Real GDP for the full 2025-26 year is projected to grow 7.6% to ₹322.58 lakh crore.
- Nominal GDP for the quarter grew 8.9% to ₹90.91 lakh crore; the year's nominal figure is projected at ₹345.47 lakh crore.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation published a new series for India's national accounts on February 27, moving the base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23. Headline growth for the October-December quarter came in at 7.8% in real terms. That number looks familiar, and it is meant to: the point of rebasing is to change the yardstick, not the story.
Why the level falls while the rate holds
Rebasing resets every rupee of output to the structure of a later year. When the reference year moves eleven years forward, the measured size of the economy changes — because the base is larger — while the year-on-year rate of change is calculated within the new series and stays broadly continuous. A lower GDP number after rebasing is an artefact of the arithmetic, not a contraction.
- Real GDP, October-December 2025: ₹84.54 lakh crore, up 7.8%
- Nominal GDP, October-December 2025: ₹90.91 lakh crore, up 8.9%
- Real GDP, 2025-26: ₹322.58 lakh crore, up 7.6%
- Nominal GDP, 2025-26: ₹345.47 lakh crore
- Base year: 2022-23, replacing 2011-12
The gap between real and nominal growth in the quarter — 7.8% against 8.9% — is the price effect, and it is the number to watch alongside the headline. When nominal growth runs above real growth, the current-rupee value of output is expanding faster than its volume, which is what allows tax revenue and corporate cash flow to grow faster than the reported real rate. When the two converge or invert, the fiscal arithmetic tightens.
- What changed: the base year, and with it every level estimate in the series.
- What did not change much: the year-on-year growth rates, which remain broadly continuous.
- What is restated: earlier quarters, because the whole series is reconstructed on the new base.
- What is not resolved: comparisons of the new rupee levels with figures published before the change.
The practical guidance for anyone reading the new data is narrow and unglamorous. Compare growth rates across time within the new series, and compare levels only against other figures drawn from the same series. The 2025-26 projections in this release are the government's own; the budget's assumptions were set before the rebasing, which means the fiscal arithmetic and the national accounts are now being drawn on slightly different baselines for a time.
Sources — 3 references
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About the byline
Rohit Banerjee
Macroeconomics, public finance and the quarterly numbers. Reads the budget documents for pleasure.
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