March inflation was 3.40%. For a household, the relief is narrower than the headline

The number that matters most to an Indian household each month is not the one in the headline, and April 13 was a good month to be reminded of that. Consumer price inflation for March, published by the National Statistics Office, came in at 3.40 per cent year on year — inside the central bank's target range, comfortably below the 4 per cent midpoint, and slightly higher than February.

The direction of travel underneath was less comfortable. Food inflation, tracked separately on the Consumer Food Price Index, rose to 3.87 per cent from 3.47 per cent. Food carries the largest weight in an Indian consumption basket, and it is the component most households notice first. A household that bought the same basket in March 2026 than in March 2025 paid 3.40 per cent more overall, but paid meaningfully more for what it eats.

1. 1.3.40 per cent — combined CPI inflation, March 2026, provisional, against 3.21 per cent for February, now final.
2. 2.3.63 per cent rural, 3.11 per cent urban — the gap that decides whether the national figure feels accurate.
3. 3.3.87 per cent — food inflation, up from 3.47 per cent; rural 3.96, urban 3.71.
4. 4.2.11 per cent — housing inflation, with rural at 2.54 and urban at 1.95.
5. 5.1,407 urban markets and 1,465 villages — the price-collection base behind the series.

What held the number down was as specific as what pushed it up. DD News, reporting the release, noted sharp declines in the prices of onions, potatoes and pulses, while tomatoes and cauliflower stayed elevated. Non-food segments supplied the offset, and precious metals did a disproportionate share of the work: inflation in jewellery ran negative, which mechanically pulls down a headline that weights metals more heavily than most consumers think it does.

There is a geopolitical reading available, and it should be treated with care. ICRA's chief economist, quoted by Reuters on the day of the release, said the 3.40 per cent print matched the agency's own forecast and showed a mild initial impact from the West Asia crisis on the headline, while expecting inflation to cross 4.0 per cent in April as energy costs work through. One print is not a pass-through. The claim to watch is the April one, which was due on May 12.

For planning purposes the practical reading is narrow. Headline inflation in the low threes is consistent with the Reserve Bank holding its policy rate at 5.25 per cent in April. Food inflation at 3.87 per cent, and rising, is the number that will appear in a household's grocery bill, and it is not the one the monetary policy statement is written around.