A Qatar-linked LNG tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, and the waterway's risk premium did not soften

An LNG tanker linked to Qatar was struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, according to a Bloomberg report that cited people familiar with the matter. Hours earlier, CNBC had reported that commercial tankers sailing near Oman were coming under fire.

Neither report identified an attacker. Neither published a crew casualty count, a flag state account or a technical description of the damage. For a stretch of water where almost every commercial movement is now watched by states and insurers, the absence of those details is itself informative.

Why a gas carrier is a different problem from an oil tanker

The strait is the only sea route between the Persian Gulf and the open ocean, and its traffic is not fungible. The Congressional Research Service put roughly a fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption and about a fifth of global LNG trade through Hormuz in 2023, and found that nearly 84% of the crude and condensate moving through it in the first half of 2024 was bound for Asian markets.

• About 20 million barrels of oil a day pass through Hormuz, by the Congressional Research Service's estimate.
• Roughly one-fifth of seaborne LNG trade uses the same route.
• The Asian share of crude and condensate shipments through the strait was close to 84% in early 2024.

A strike on a gas carrier lands on a different set of buyers than a strike on a tanker. LNG cargoes are contracted years ahead and delivered to a small number of regasification terminals, so the substitution question at the buyer's end is narrower and longer than it is for crude.

The price of that uncertainty has been visible in insurance rather than in benchmarks. CNBC reported in March that war-risk premiums on Gulf voyages had risen from a baseline near 0.125% of hull value to as much as 0.4% on the worst routes — a fourfold to sixfold increase, and the kind of cost that does not come down simply because a month passes quietly.

The Asian importers who dominate this route are the party most exposed in the immediate term. Japan, South Korea and India take most of the volume that moves east out of the Gulf, and the available substitutes are limited in the same month in which the risk has risen.

• Confirmation of the vessel, its flag state and whether it is being towed.
• Any change in quoted war-risk premiums for voyages through the strait.
• Whether the reported firing near Oman extends to traffic well outside Hormuz.